HIGHLIGHTS
- The yield on 10-year Indonesian government bonds is 7.030% on 08 July 2024, down from 7.066% the previous day. Meanwhile, yield UST 10yr stable at 6.28% yesterday, compared to the previous day.
- The volume of government bonds was IDR34.18 trillion and it was dominated by short-term (< 5 years). It was higher than the previous day's transaction of IDR 25.34 trillion. The volume was lower than the YTD average of IDR 44.83 trillion. While the outright transaction reached IDR12.44 trillion, it was lower than the previous day's transaction which amounted to IDR13.56 trillion.
- Meanwhile, the total volume of corporate bonds was recorded at IDR3,313 billion, dominated by short term (< 5 years). The transaction volume increased from the previous day's volume of IDR 3,142 billion. The volume was higher compared to this year's average of IDR1,983 billion. Meanwhile, the outright transaction recorded at IDR 3,313 billion was higher compared to the previous day's transaction of IDR 3,142 billion.
- The Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar strengthened by 0.14% to IDR 16,255 from IDR 16,278 while the JCI declined by -0.03% to 7,251 from 7,253. Subsequently, Brent crude oil rose from USD 88.96 to USD 89.11 per barrel while WTI Cushing crude oil spot price stabilised from USD 83.88 to USD 83.88 per barrel.
GLOBAL UPDATES
- US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead declined for a second consecutive month to 3% in June 2024 from 3.2% in May, led by a broad-based decline in price prospects. (Trading Economics)
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati estimates that the deficit in the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) for Fiscal Year 2024 will reach 2.70% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or nominally IDR 609.7 trillion. The projected 2024 APBN deficit is higher than the target set, namely 2.29% of GDP or nominally IDR 522.8 trillion. The Ministry of Finance reported tax revenues reaching IDR 1,028 trillion in the first semester of 2024. This tax revenue contracted 7% compared to last year's period which was recorded at IDR 1,105.6 trillion. This achievement is only equivalent to 44.5% of the 2024 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) target. On the other hand, the realization of subsidies and compensation paid by the government had reached IDR 155.7 trillion until Semester I-2024. (Kontan)
- Indonesia's consumer confidence went down to 123.3 in June 2024 from 125.2 in May, marking the lowest reading since February. Almost all six sub-indices deteriorated: expectations about the country's current economic conditions, economic outlook, income expectations for the next six months, job availability, and job availability compared to six months ago. However, income expectations for current income strengthened. (Bank Indonesia)
- The government is set to conduct a Government Debt Securities (SUN) auction on Tuesday, July 9, 2024. The auction will feature several series including SPN03241009 and SPN12250710 as new issuances, along with existing series FR0101, FR0100, FR0098, FR0097, and FR0102. The target amount for this auction is IDR 24 trillion, up from the previous target of IDR 22 trillion, with a maximum ceiling of IDR 36 trillion. During the last auction on June 25, 2024, bids amounted to IDR 56.39 trillion, an increase from IDR 42.96 trillion in the prior auction on June 11, 2024. The auction successfully allocated IDR 23 trillion, surpassing the IDR 22 trillion target and the previous allocation. This resulted in a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.45x. BRI Danareksa Sekuritas has projected that bids for the upcoming auction could range between IDR 45 trillion and IDR 55 trillion, with an anticipated bid-to-cover ratio varying from 1.88x - 2.29x. (DJPPR, BRIDS Estimated)
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