FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Equity Strategy: In Search of ‘Value’

• JCI valuation now reflects 126bps earnings yield spread over the 10-yr bond yield, implying investors’ regained confidence on the market.
• Amid lack of growth catalysts, we believe stocks at deeply discounted value and low earnings downside risks may offer an attractive exposure.
• Top ‘value’ stocks based on our screening: BBRI, INTP, CTRA, BBCA, KLBF.

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Bank Negara Indonesia:  In line 1Q25 Earnings: NIM Contraction Offset by Lower CoC on Resilient Asset Quality (BBNI.IJ Rp 4,190; BUY TP Rp 5,100)

• BBNI reported a NP of Rp5.4tr in 1Q25 (+4% qoq, +1% yoy) with a lower CoC of 0.9% (-8bps yoy) offsetting the lower NIM of 3.8% (-6bps yoy).
• Mgmt is confident in asset quality with improving NPL formation but expects to raise CoC in the subsequent quarter to build buffers.
• Maintain Buy rating for BBNI with an unchanged TP of Rp5,100 based on -0.5SD 5-year inverse CoE GGM, implying FV PBV of 1.1x.

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Macro Strategy: Post Relief Rally: What’s Next?

• The relief rally risks losing momentum and reversing unless Indonesia shows clearer signs of growth to support inflows.
• US LT Inflation expectation remains anchored despite higher ST inflation risk, which points to higher probability for FFR cuts.
• Lower energy price would also help to ease broader ST inflationary pressure and open up govt fiscal buffer for demand side stimulus.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

MTEL (BUY, TP: 800) – 1Q25 Lagging in terms of Net Income

1Q25 earnings were broadly in line, achieving 23.8% of both our FY25 forecast and consensus estimates, with net profit of Rp526bn (-13.5% qoq, +0.9% yoy).

• Revenue came in at Rp2.26tr (-9.2% qoq, +1.4% yoy), reporting lower revenue from XL primarily, followed by IOH and TSEL at lower negative magnitude on qoq basis. Nonetheless MTEL added +391 new tenancies (189 from built-to-suit) with the tower tenancy ratio remaining stable at 1.52x (unchanged qoq basis).
• EBITDA declined by 11% qoq to Rp1.87tr, with margins contracting by 180bps qoq to 83.0%, primarily due to topline softness.
• Financial expenses came in lower as the debt was reduced in 1Q25.
• We believe the passive infrastructure rollout in 1Q25 is the key positive, to be reflected in the coming quarter and support revenue.
• The current run rate of 1.4% yoy revenue growth is also broadly in line with the 1.8% yoy FY25 company guidance. (Niko Margaronis, Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

Poultry (Overweight) – 4th week of April 2025 Price Update

• Livebird prices rebounded to Rp16k/kg, with the weekly average reaching Rp15.9k/kg in the fourth week of Apr25, marking a 10.2% wow increase.
• DOC prices remained stable at approximately Rp4.7k/chick.
• Local corn prices edged down slightly to Rp5.1k/kg, with the weekly average also at Rp5.1k/kg, representing a 0.5% wow decline.
• SBM prices stayed below US$300/t, with the Apr25 average recorded at US$292, down 1% mom and 14% yoy.
• While livebird prices remain below breakeven levels, they have rebounded from the YTD low of Rp13.7k/kg. We expect prices to trade sideways in the near term until the impact of the voluntary culling program materializes. Meanwhile, input costs continue to trend favorably, providing some margin support. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

WINS (Buy, TP Rp480) - 1Q25 Results: Below Estimate

• 1Q25 NP declined to US$1.6mn, -41% qoq and -26% yoy, reaching 8% of our estimate, as fleet utilization continues to drop from 63% in 4Q24 to 57% in 1Q25
• Meanwhile, 1Q25 revenue also declined -20% qoq to US$16.7mn, which was below our estimate at 17%. The decline in revenue was mainly caused by lower chartered vessel revenue of US$914k, -70% YoY, due to the prolonged wet season in 1Q.
• We could see a stronger 2Q performance as 2 new HLBs commenced operations in Apr'25 and contracts on hand have increased to US$72mn (Timothy Wijaya - BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia Has Second-Highest Poverty Rate in ASEAN

According to the World Bank’s Macro Poverty Outlook (April 2025 edition), 60.3% of Indonesia’s population was still considered poor in 2024 based on the upper-middle-income poverty line of US$6.85 (around Rp115,278) per day. This places Indonesia with the second-highest poverty rate among developing ASEAN countries. Indonesia was categorized as an upper-middle-income country in 2023 with a gross national income (GNI) of US$4,580 per capita. (Bisnis)

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Apr 28, 2025

CORPORATE

AKRA Allocates Rp1.6tr for Expansion

AKRA is expanding aggressively in 2025, planning to add 15–20 new gas stations and targeting the sale of 100 hectares of land in the Java Integrated Industrial and Port Estate (JIIPE). To support this, AKRA has allocated Rp1.6tr in capital expenditure, focusing on major cities and areas near company infrastructure. (Bisnis)

 

ARNA Posts 9% Sales Growth in 1Q25

ARNA posted net sales of Rp690.65bn in 1Q25, up 9.24% yoy from Rp632.22bn a year earlier. Cost of goods sold rose 15% to Rp470.21bn, slightly lowering gross profit by 1.56% to Rp220.43bn. Selling expenses and general and administrative costs declined by 1.81% and 17.86%, respectively. As a result, ARNA’s net profit attributable to owners edged up 0.19% to Rp105bn by the end of Mar25. (Kontan)

 

DMAS Declares a Dividend of Rp29 per Share

DMAS has declared a cash dividend of Rp1.4tr for the 2024 fiscal year, amounting to Rp29/share (yield: 16.3%). This figure is equivalent to 105% of the company's net profit for 2024 (Rp1.33tr). (IDX)

 

EMTK to Distribute a Dividend of Rp33 per Share

EMTK has announced plans to distribute Rp2.01 trillion in dividends for FY24 earnings, equivalent to Rp33 per share with a dividend yield of 6.11%. 2024 net profit to be distributed through FY24 net profit of Rp1.5tr, and retained earnings. (Kontan)

 

SCMA to Distribute a Total Dividend of Rp23 per Share

SCMA will distribute a final dividend of Rp18 per share for the 2024 fiscal year (div. yield 8.8%). This comes in addition to the Rp5 per share interim dividend already paid, bringing the total dividend distribution to Rp23 per share. (Kontan)