FROM EQUITY RESEARCH |
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Macro Strategy: Dissecting the Optics · Persistent downward adjustments to employment figures would signal an economic downturn– similar to situation in 2008. · Broader historical patterns do not conclusively show a tendency for the Fed to front-load rate changes in election years. · A surge in Fiscal Operations toward year-end has led to better system liquidity – with further support from front loading spending in 1Q24. To see the full version of this report, please click here
Avia Avian Tbk: A better volume growth prospect in FY24 (AVIA.IJ IDR 545 BUY.TP IDR 620) · We expect FY24 vol. growth to improve (to +3.6% yoy) which, combined with sustained margins, shall drive FY24 net profit growth of 4% yoy. · Nonetheless, we cut our FY24-25F net profit forecast as we now look for a more conservative volume growth. · Led by strategic initiatives in FY24, we expect stronger volumes should drive earnings upside for AVIA. Maintain Buy with a lower TP of Rp620. To see the full version of this report, please click here
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MARKET NEWS |
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MACROECONOMY
China Deflation softened to 0.3% yoy in Dec23
China Deflation softened to 0.3% yoy in December 2023. This marks the third consecutive month of annual deflation, with the continued decline primarily attributed to food prices, which fell by 3.7% annually (compared to November's -4.2%). On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.1%, marking the first uptick in three months. Core inflation, on the other hand, rose by 0.6% yoy, remaining unchanged from the preceding two months. (Bloomberg)
Indonesian Government has Officially Announced the Extension of BLT El Nino until Jun24
The Coordinating Minister of Economy, Airlangga Hartarto, has officially announced the extension of BLT El Nino until June 2024, a decision sanctioned by the president. However, detailed information pertaining to the social assistance program remains undisclosed presently. In addition to the BLT El Nino, the government will persist in distributing 10kg of rice to 22mn recipients. (Bisnis)
CORPORATE
ADHI Contract Value Target in 2024 Same as Last Year
ADHI targets the achievement of contract value in 2024 to be the same as last year's achievement or grow slightly in line with the construction market conditions. ADHI itself recorded the acquisition of new contracts amounting to Rp37.4tr in 2023. For market conditions in 2024, ADHI sees opportunities in several infrastructure works still open, including toll road projects, railway projects, and infrastructure preservation projects, in addition, ADHI is also working on new market opportunities for work from environmental-based projects. (Kontan)
ASII Reached Car Sales of 560,717 Units in 2023
ASII realized car sales of 560,717 units throughout 2023. This result is 2.35% lower (yoy). The majority of Astra Group's car sales still come from the Toyota brand with 339,292 units in 2023. This was followed by Daihatsu with 188,000 units. Especially for the LCGC category, Astra Group's sales in this segment were recorded at 151,885 units in 2023. This figure increased by 8.61% (yoy). According to the company, Astra Group was the leader of the national automotive market with a market share of 56% by the end of 2023. The company hopes to continue to increase its car sales entering 2024. (Kontan)
SMRA IJ – 4Q23 Marketing Sales Review
- SMRA booked marketing sales of Rp 1.4 trillion in 4Q23 (flat qoq and yoy), bringing its FY23 marketing sales to Rp 4.5 tn., relatively align (96%) with our estimates of Rp 4.7 tn., yet below (90%) company's target of Rp 5.0 tn.
- The 4Q23 sales alone form 29% of the company's FY23 target. Only 3 out of 8 SMRA's project reached company's yearly target, namely Bekasi (163%), Bogor (122%), and Crown Gading (128%). Highest marketing sales achievement in 4Q23 recorded by Serpong project (Rp374bn.), followed by Crown Gading (Rp324bn.), and Bekasi (Rp291bn.)
- Mortgage and cash installment remain the most considerable portion of the payment term at 41% and 39%, respectively in FY23.
- SMRA is one of the cheapest options in the property sector, with a discount to RNAV of 81%. (Ismail Fakhri – BRIDS)