FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Semen Indonesia: Trimming Forecasts Post 4Q24 Earnings Miss; Upgrade to Buy on Depressed Valuation (SMGR.IJ Rp 2,160; BUY TP Rp 3,400)

• SMGR reported 4Q24 net profit of almost Rp0, leading to FY24 net profit of Rp720bn (-67% yoy, 62%/59% of ours/cons hence, a miss).
• Due to market share strategy, we expect SMGR vol to grow by 2%/3% in FY25F/FY26F (higher than INTP), yet we expect ASP to grow by 0.5%.
• We cut our FY25F/FY26F EPS by 23%/23%. Despite this and ASP risk, we upgrade our rating to Buy amid buyback and depressed valuation

To see the full version of this report, please click here

 

Tower Bersama: FY24 Earnings Miss; Build-to-suit-Driven Growth Prompts Downgrade in Valuation (TBIG.IJ Rp 1,935; HOLD TP Rp 1,800)

• 4Q24 earnings fell short due to non-cash items and higher taxes, despite stable revenue and flat EBITDA, driven by new anchor tenant additions.
• Net tenancy growth in FY24 was mainly BTS-driven; collocation demand remained weak, impacted by relocations and non-renewal activity.
• We revise our TP to Rp1,800 based on a blended valuation, reflecting outlook for weak tenancy ratios; downgrade our rating to Hold.

To see the full version of this report, please click here

 

To see the full version of this snapshoot, please click here

 

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

MIDI (Buy, TP: Rp540) – Key Takeaways from MIDI’s FY24 Earnings Call: ·         MIDI acknowledged soft purchasing power in 1Q25. However, with 52% of its stores located outside Java, the company still reported solid 1Q25 SSSG of 12.5%. ·         Lancar Wiguna Sejahtera (LWS – Lawson) will hold a shareholder meeting in early May 2025. MIDI expects the signing to take place in mid-May 2025. ·         MIDI is projected to book a loss of around Rp50bn from 4.5 months of Lawson operations under its ownership this year. ·         MIDI maintained its FY25 guidance of mid-single-digit SSSG and low-teens revenue growth. However, in post-divestment, the company may exceed its growth guidance. (Natalia Sutanto & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

 

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Trump Hikes China Tariffs to 145%, Beijing Hits Back with Restricting US Movie Exports

As the rest of the world received a 90-day respite, Trump escalated tariffs on China, saying the US will now charge an extra 145% on all Chinese goods that arrive in the US. In response, Beijing moved to exact pain on a strategic US industry by limiting the export of American movies, after already hiking its own tariffs on the US to 84%. (CNN)

 

US Inflation Cools to 2.4% in March, Core Rate Below Forecasts

The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second consecutive month to 2.4% YoY in March 2025, the lowest since September, down from 2.8%. Meanwhile, core inflation eased to 2.8% YoY in March 2025, down from 3.1% in February and below the market expectation of 3%. (Trading Economics)

 

US Tariff May Trim Indonesia's Growth by 0.3-0.5 Percentage Points

Planned U.S. tariffs could cut Indonesia’s potential growth by 0.3–0.5 percentage points, but Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the 90-day pause offers a window to negotiate solutions and mitigate the economic risks. (Reuters)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Apr 10, 2025

CORPORATE

AVIA Distributes Rp1.33tr Dividend and Launches New Share Buyback Program

AVIA approved a cash dividend of Rp1.33tr or Rp22 per share (yield: 5.6%)—equivalent to 80.41% of its FY24 net profit of Rp1.66tr, including a previously paid interim dividend of Rp672bn. The meeting also approved an additional share buyback program worth Rp1tr, following the completion of a prior buyback reaching 1.425bn shares. These actions reflect AVIA's commitment to shareholder returns and confidence in its long-term business prospects. (Emiten News)

 

INET and APJII to Build 58 IIX Nodes, Completion Set for 2025

INET, in collaboration with the Indonesian Internet Service Providers Association (APJII), is constructing 58 Internet Exchange (IIX) nodes across Java Island. The project spans 58 cities, including Bogor, Bandung, Cirebon, Karawang, Cikampek, Cianjur, Sukabumi, Serang, Tegal, Yogyakarta, Kebumen, Surabaya, and Bojonegoro, and is scheduled for completion by Q3 2025. This initiative promises ultra-fast internet access for broadband users in smaller cities by reducing dependence on Jakarta’s interconnection and significantly lowering latency. (InvestorDaily)

 

ISAT Data Traffic Surges by 21% During 2025 Eid Holiday Period

ISAT recorded a 21% increase in data traffic during the 2025 Eid al-Fitr period compared to regular days, driven by a surge in digital app usage throughout Ramadan and Eid celebrations. The top five most-used applications during this time were WhatsApp, TikTok, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram. Regionally, the highest traffic spikes were in Sumatra, reflecting the growing reliance on digital connectivity for communication and entertainment during the festive season. (Kontan)

 

LPPF Approves Rp300/share Dividends for FY24

LPPF has approved a final cash dividend of Rp300/share (yield: 15.2%) for FY24, equivalent to 81.96% of its earnings per share. This decision was made during the annual general meeting held on April 10, 2025. (Bisnis)

 

Telkomsel Records a 12% Surge in Data Traffic During 2025 Eid Period

Telkomsel reported a 12% increase in internet traffic during the 2025 Eid period compared to regular days, and a 15.7% rise compared to the previous Ramadan and Eid season. The surge was driven by higher usage across digital services, with social media traffic up 18.3%, instant messaging up 34.2%, video streaming up 40.2%, and mobile gaming soaring by 60.7%. (Bisnis)

 

WIFI Preemptive Rights Issue

WIFI will conduct a Rights Issue (PMHMETD I) with the following details:

• New shares to be issued: Up to 2.95bn shares
• Exercise price: Rp2,000 per share
• Rights ratio: Every 4 existing shares entitle shareholders to 5 Rights (HMETD)
• Cum date (regular & negotiation market): June 11, 2025
• Recording date (DPS): June 13, 2025
• Trading & subscription period: June 17 – 23, 2025
• Maximum proceeds targeted: Rp5.9Tr

 

Use of Proceeds: Rp5.8Tr to build FTTH network covering 4mn homepasses across Java and working capital

Strategic Goal: Deliver affordable high-speed internet (Rp100k/month) and the construction is targeted for completion by end-2025. Funds will be raised by WIJI IJ, to be invested in IJE via JIA subholding. PT Investasi Sukses Bersama (ISB) commits to subscribing 1.48bn rights, worth Rp2.97Tr. (IDX)