Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ)

Upgrading FY25-27F Est. and TP on More Optimistic Sales Outlook; Growth Projects Are Underway

 

  • 4Q24 earnings grew to Rp1.4tr, +122% qoq, supported by robust gold sales of 15.2 tons, +21% qoq, and FeNi sales of 7.7kt, +61% qoq.
  • ANTM will build its 2nd gold minting plant in Gresik with c.30mn tons capacity; construction of RKEF and HPAL plants will commence in 2H24.
  • Maintain our Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp2,000. Key risks include lower commodity prices, lower utilization, and project delays.

 

Robust 4Q24 result boosts FY24 earnings

4Q24 net profit reached Rp1.4tr, +122% qoq, bringing FY24 earnings to Rp3.6tr, +19% yoy, reaching 122%/132% of ours/cons FY24 estimate. 4Q24 core profit was relatively flattish at Rp1tr, -3% qoq, as other income grew to Rp857bn (vs. 9M24: Rp759bn), which mainly comes from WBN’s contribution of Rp349bn, forex gain of Rp321bn, and a one-off KDI asset transfer of Rp101bn. Meanwhile, 4Q24 revenue grew strongly to Rp25.9tr, +30% qoq, bringing FY24 revenue to Rp69.2tr, which was attributable to record-breaking gold sales of 15.2 tons in 4Q24, +21% qoq, as well as FeNi sales of 7.7kt, +61% qoq.

 

Growth projects are underway

ANTM provided an update on its gold mining and trading projects where it is looking for new concessions both domestically and regionally as a continuation from the Pongkor gold mine, which only has 3–4 years of mine life, though we believe an M&A is less likely due to the high gold price environment at the moment. On the minting and trading side, ANTM is in the pre-construction phase of a Rp1.1tr gold minting plant in Gresik, which can produce up to 5mn pcs of gold bars and coins (eqv. to ~30 tons of gold). Once it operates, it will synergize well as an offtaker for Freeport’s gold smelter within the same complex. On the nickel side, ANTM is preparing to inject Rp5tr for the construction of the RKEF in 2Q25 and the HPAL in 3Q25.

 

FY25-27F forecast upgrades on stronger operational performance

Based on the company’s latest guidance, we revised our sales target to 42 tons of gold, 19kt of FeNi, 14.5mn wmt of nickel ore, which increased our FY25-26E revenue estimates by +61%/+52% to Rp74tr/Rp72tr and net profit estimates by +44%/+42% to Rp5.3tr/Rp5.5tr, while adding a new forecast for FY27E to Rp5.7tr.

 

Reiterate our Buy rating with an upgraded TP of Rp2,500

We reiterate our Buy rating with an upgraded TP of Rp2,500 to reflect our higher forecast, now based on FY25F PE of 11x (vs. 13x PE previously), equal to -0.5x std of its 3-yr mean forward PE band. Key risks to our call include lower nickel prices, a lower utilization rate, and project execution delays.

 

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