Property - Overall : KTA from Meeting with JLL: Landed-Houses, Retails, and Industrial Estate as Growth Proxy (OVERWEIGHT)

Stock Code	Last Price	Change	Change %
DSSA	40,225	625	1.58%
RDTX	13,150	550	4.37%
MKPI	25,350	375	1.50%
MSIN	940	185	24.50%
BNLI	2,440	140	6.09%
LINK	1,800	100	5.88%
SMIL	432	86	24.86%
MASB	3,350	80	2.45%

Property – Overall

KTA from Meeting with JLL: Landed-Houses, Retails, and Industrial Estate as Growth Proxy

As affordability remains a key challenge for Indonesia’s housing end-users, we prefer exposure to companies with Rp1-5bn landed products.
JLL expects the retail market to maintain stable occupancy and rental rate growth amid active tenant expansion in limited space supply.
Chinese EV dominates Industrial Estate inquiries. Maintain OW rating on the Property and Industrial Estate sector. Top Picks: CTRA and SSIA.

Greater Jakarta Landed Housing: Affordability and Access as Key Attractor

JLL sees the landed housing market in Greater Jakarta remaining healthy, with a high sales rate of 87% in FY24, and expects sales to remain stable in FY25, driven by the continuation of the VAT incentive program. Affordability remains a key focus, with products priced <Rp2bn continuing to dominate, accounting for nearly 80% of units sold. Projects developed by reputable names and offering affordable prices, flexible payment terms, or proximity to public transport should sustain positive market responses.

Retail: Limited Supply Giving Landlords Leverage to Increase Rents

The retail market in greater Jakarta has seen a stable occupancy rate of around 90%, with stable rental rate growth of ~3% expected to continue in FY25, given the limited space supply amid active expansion from tenants particularly in prime malls.

Industrial Estate: EV Industry Remains Key Catalyst

JLL noted rising inquiries from Chinese companies for industrial land, with domination from automotive companies, particularly EV Players, and data centers. According to JLL, VinFast have completed the transaction for land purchase in Southern Subang for 180ha (vs. BYD’s 108ha) (Exhibit 18), with facility expected to be completed by 4Q25 to qualify for tax exemptions. JLL noted that while EV manufacturers occupy higher land area (>100ha) compared to non-EV (30-50ha), usually it already includes end-to-end manufacturing facilities (vs. non-EV which could attract three related manufacturers).

Maintain OW; Landed-Houses, Retail, Industrial Estate as Growth Proxy

We maintain OW rating on the sector both for property developers and industrial estate. As we identified that affordability is the key obstacle for Indonesian end-users driven demand, we favor developers with majority of their portfolios comprising Rp1-5bn landed houses. Mitigating risks of weak pre-sales, we also favor those with strong retail portfolios as the healthiest investment-property options. Our pecking order remains CTRA> PWON> SMRA> BSDE. Meanwhile, for industrial estate, despite potential lower demand from EV-related components, the entrance of VinFast to Subang proved that the area remains most appealing to set EV facilities, considering its proximity to Greater Jakarta as key market, better availability of land vs. Cikarang, and future infra of Patimban Seaport. We prefer SSIA over DMAS given its higher landbank in Subang, supported by strong recurring revenue.

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