- The relief rally risks losing momentum and reversing unless Indonesia shows clearer signs of growth to support inflows.
- US LT Inflation expectation remains anchored despite higher ST inflation risk, which points to higher probability for FFR cuts.
- Lower energy price would also help to ease broader ST inflationary pressure and open up govt fiscal buffer for demand side stimulus.
HIGHLIGHTS
- Fading Tailwinds and Emerging Headwinds?
- Factor 1: US Recession Risk and FFR Trajectory
- Factor 2: Currency Risk – Weaker DXY, No IDR Appreciation
- Factor 3. Safe-Haven Shift
- Factor 4. Oil Price Weakness
- Capital Market: Market Still On the Uptrend
- State Sharia Securities (SBSN) Auction Announcement – April 29, 2025
This Week Key Focus
- China NBS Manufacturing PMI – April 2025 (Thursday)
- Bank of Japan Interest Rate – May 2025 (Thursday)
- US Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate – April 2025 (Friday)
- Indonesia Inflation – April 2025 (Friday)
Last week Key Events
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Bank Indonesia held the BI Rate at 5.75%,
- Trade Surplus widened to USD4.3bn in Mar-25 – Monday
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