HIGHLIGHTS
- The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by 14 basis points (bps) to 4.38% as of March 27, 2025, up from 4.24% on March 20, 2025. Similarly, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2 bps to 3.97% over the same period. In contrast, the yield on the 10-year Indonesian Government Bond (INDOGB) declined by 6 bps to 7.04% as of March 27, 2025.
- The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.52% on a weekly basis, while the Indonesian Rupiah weakened by 0.52%, closing at IDR16,560 per U.S. Dollar on March 27, 2025. Additionally, Indonesia's 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) rose by 3 bps week-on-week to 93 bps.
- The government bond trading volume stood at IDR55.04 trillion, with activity predominantly concentrated in the medium-term tenor (5–15 years). This figure declined from the previous day's transaction volume of IDR67.92 trillion but remained above the year-to-date (YTD) average of IDR49.02 trillion. Meanwhile, outright transactions rose to IDR20.75 trillion, compared to IDR19.08 trillion recorded the previous day.
- Total corporate bond trading volume reached IDR4.88 trillion, primarily in short-term maturities (less than 5 years). This marked a decrease from the previous day's volume of IDR6.41 trillion, although still above the YTD average of IDR2.54 trillion. Outright transactions also declined to IDR4.86 trillion from IDR6.37 trillion on the preceding day.
- The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) gained 0.59%, rising to 6,511 from 6,472. In the commodity market, Brent crude oil rose from USD73.53 to USD74.76 per barrel, while the WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot price increased slightly from USD69.46 to USD69.65 per barrel.
GLOBAL UPDATES
- Trump’s sweeping new trade policy is now partially in effect, with a minimum 10% global tariff on all U.S. imports having started on April 5. Steeper, country-specific tariffs are set to follow on April 9, targeting around 60 nations based on their trade practices, existing barriers, and alleged currency manipulation. China faces the highest total tariff at 54%, followed by Vietnam (46%), Taiwan and Indonesia (32%), Japan (24%), and the EU (20%). China chose retaliation with 34% tariffs on US goods. (Bloomberg)
- US Non-farm payrolls rising by 228K in Mar-25, well above the 140K consensus estimate and up from a revised 117K in February. However, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% with annual wage growth softened to 3.8% from the previous 4.0%, missing expectations. Overall, the report points to a resilient labor market heading into a potential slowdown amid higher tariffs. (Bloomberg)
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Indonesia pledged to reduce tarrif barriers for US products, increase import from US, and look for investment deregulation to negotiate for tariff exemption. (Bloomberg, MoF)
- Bank Indonesia intervened in the offshore NDF market to stabilize the Rupiah amid global volatility triggered by the U.S. reciprocal tariffs (April 2) and China’s retaliation (April 4). With domestic markets closed for Eid, pressure mounted in offshore trading. BI will extend intervention to the domestic market from April 8 via spot, DNDF, and SBN purchases, while also ensuring adequate Rupiah liquidity to support market stability and investor confidence. (Bank Indonesia)
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