FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Retail and Consumer: Retailers Boost Promotions as FMCG Prices Rise Ahead of Eid Festive (OVERWEIGHT)

• Retailers have offered healthy promotions Ytd, while we observed some FMCG price increases ahead of the Eid Festive season.
• Amid reports of soft sales and demand in Feb Ytd, we believe the affordable FMCG segment should remain lucrative.
• We maintain OW ratings in the Consumer and Retail sectors. We prefer MAPI and KLBF as our top picks, as both offer attractive valuations.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

AADI (Not Rated): FY24 core net profit missed consensus est.

• AADI reported FY24 core net profit of US$1.0bn (-2.6% yoy), a miss compared to consensus expectations (80% of FY24F).
• FY24 revenue met expectations at US$5.3bn (-10% yoy); earnings miss was attributed to the higher-than-expected cost partly due to higher fuel cost.
• AADI’s FY24 sales volume reached 68Mt (+11% yoy), which offset the drop in ASP to US$75.1/t (-20% yoy). The higher volume, however, has resulted in COGS to drop by -8% yoy (vs. revenue drop of -10% yoy), leading to the lower-than-expected EBITDA (86% of cons FY24 est.). (Erindra Krisnawan & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

ADRO (Hold, TP Under Review): FY24 net profit (post restructure) beat

• ADRO reported FY24 net profit from continuing operations of US$637mn (-2% yoy vs. proforma FY23 – post restructure).
• FY24 net profit came in well above our proforma FY24 (+253% of FY24PF) on the back of revenue beat (106% of FY24PF), well-managed cost (93% of FY24PF) and higher-than-expected interest income.
• At the operational level, FY24 coal and OB production (from mining contracting SIS) grew at a strong +29% and +26% yoy respectively, ahead of our forecast (125/111% of FY24PF), with lower-than-expected production cost. ADMR’s operating profit came in line with our FY24PF, as strong sales volume (+24% yoy) and cost efficiency has more than offset weaker ASP. (Erindra Krisnawan & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

JPFA (Buy, TP: Rp2,800) to Conduct Share Buyback

• JPFA is seeking approval to conduct a share buyback of up to 2.0% of all issued shares, with a maximum aggregate purchase consideration of Rp470bn. The latest 30 days average price is c. Rp1,980/share.
• If fully utilized, this would increase EPS by 2.1% and RoE by 53bps to 18.75%.
• JPFA has regularly sought approval for both buybacks and private placements. However, this year, only the buyback program was announced. The latest buyback mandate sought a maximum of 1.5% of all issued shares, with a maximum aggregate purchase consideration of Rp350bn.
• The absence of a private placement could indicate the company’s confidence in near-term cash flow. This year’s EGMS will be held on April 10, 2025.
• The buyback will provide positive sentiment for the stock providing less downside risk to share price. We maintain our BUY call with a TP of Rp2,800, supported by its solid fundamentals and cheap valuations. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

 

SEA (Not Rated): Solid 4Q24 earnings for SEA LTD / Shopee; We are Sensing High E-commerce Competition in SE Asia

Key Highlights:

• Shopee claims to be the ecommerce leader in all 7 of its Asian markets.
• Higher take rates qoq/yoy from commissions and advertising. Ad revenue increased 50% yoy in 4Q24, and ad take rate rose +50bps yoy. AI tools enhance product listings by improving descriptions, images, and videos, leading to higher purchase conversion rates.
• SPX Express logistics remains a key differentiator for Shopee due to its geographic reach, fast delivery speed, and cost leadership. ~50% of Asian orders were delivered within 2 days in 4Q24. Logistics cost-per-order declined by 5 cents yoy, with savings passed on to buyers and sellers.
• LLMs improved the buyer return-refund process in 4Q24, reducing resolution times in Asia by over 40% yoy, with ~60% of cases resolved within a day.
• SE Asian live streaming now accounts for ~15% of Shopee’s overall order volume for physical goods, with streamers and viewers growing 40%/30% yoy.
• Indonesia’s daily orders attributed to YouTube in Jan. 25 grew >6x since Sep. 24.
• SeaMoney loan book surpassed $5bn, growing 60%+ yoy, with 26mn active borrowers and a 90-day NPL ratio of 1.2% in 4Q. Across Asia, off-Shopee loans now account for ~50% of the loan book. In 2025, loan book growth is expected to outpace Shopee’s 20% YoY GMV growth guidance.

 

Comments:

• Shopee did not disclose its 4Q24 EBITDA breakdown for SE Asia while highlighting strong performance in Brazil, suggesting rising competition from TikTok Shop-Tokopedia. Nonetheless, Shopee asserts that it remains SE Asia’s leading livestreaming ecommerce platform in 2024.
• Tech platforms are proving highly effective in financing consumer transactions through BNPL. Platforms remain confident in BNPL penetration, which continues to expand both online and offline, outpacing credit card adoption in SEA.
• The competitive landscape in Asian ecommerce remains intense due to low entry barriers, but we continue to favor GOTO IJ as a key beneficiary of GMV growth, leveraging its ODS and fintech integration to monetize payments and logistics. (Niko Margaronis & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Mar 4, 2025

CORPORATE

EXCL Proposed to Distribute Rp1.12 tr in Dividends

EXCL has proposed to the General Meeting of Shareholders (GMS) the distribution of Rp1.12tr in dividends from its 2024 net profit, equivalent to 62% of the total earnings. Each EXCL shareholder will receive Rp85.7/share (yield: 3.9%). The Annual GMS is scheduled to take place on March 25, 2025. (Kontan)

 

ISAT and IndePay Launch Digital Payment Solution

ISAT and IndePay have collaborated to introduce a digital payment and transaction solution for Indosat customers, including IM3 and Tri users, by integrating the PaybyBank feature into the myIM3 and bima+ apps. With this new service, Indosat customers can enjoy a fast, convenient, and secure transaction experience. (InvestorDaily)

 

ISAT Predicts a 12% Surge in Data Traffic During Ramadhan & Eid 2025

ISAT predicts a daily data traffic surge of up to 12.24% ahead of Eid 2025 compared to regular days. "Unparalleled Network Services" is Indosat's initiative to maintain service quality by optimizing its network, including infrastructure upgrades, the addition of new sites, and the use of advanced technology. Indosat also enhances real-time network monitoring by leveraging the Digital Intelligence Operations Center (DIOC). (Bisnis)

 

MEDC Explores Hydrocarbon Potential

MEDC, in collaboration with SKK Migas, is evaluating the commercial potential of a hydrocarbon discovery at the West Kalabau-1 exploration well, located in the Rimau Block, South Sumatra. Through its subsidiary, PT Medco E&P Rimau, MEDC confirmed the presence of hydrocarbons after drilling to a depth of 3,220 feet at the West Kalabau-1 well. (Bisnis)

 

Telkomsel & TikTok Partner to Explore Telco Verify and Telco Insight

Telkomsel and TikTok have signed an MoU at MWC 2025 in Barcelona to explore strategic collaboration in data solutions and API development. This partnership includes the use of Telco Verify and Telco Insight Collaboration to enhance digital security and user experience on TikTok in Indonesia. A key initiative is Telco Verify, a network-based authentication solution that allows automatic user verification (silent verification) by the mobile network operator without requiring passwords or OTP codes. (Bisnis)

 

UNTR Sells Coal Mine in Kalimantan

Through its subsidiary PT Tuah Turangga Agung (TTA), UNTR has sold its entire stake in PT Borneo Berkat Makmur (BBM) to PT Reswara Minergi Hartama (RMH), a subsidiary of PT ABM Investama Tbk (ABMM), for US$34.2mn or approximately Rp561.99bn. BBM currently holds a 60% stake in PT Piranti Jaya Utama (PJU), a coal mining company with a 4,800-hectare concession in Barunang Village, Kapuas Regency, Central Kalimantan. The transaction aims to streamline the company’s coal mining business line. (Investor Daily)

 

XPENG Enters Indonesia, Plans G6 Electric SUV Launch in 2025

XPENG has officially entered Indonesia through a partnership with Erajaya Active Lifestyle. Alongside this collaboration, the company plans to launch its G6 electric SUV in the Indonesian market in the second half of 2025. (Oto Detik)