FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

ACES (Buy, TP: Rp1,100): FY24 Net Profit 5% Above Our and Consensus Estimates ·         AHI reported 4Q24 revenue growth of 11% yoy and 12% qoq, with 104bps gross margin improvement compared to the previous quarter. Opex remained manageable at 34% of revenue. A lower tax rate, following the company's compliance with free float regulations, was offset by a Rp30bn loss in Investment in Associates. As a result, 4Q24 net profit grew 12% yoy and 52% qoq. ·         In FY24, AHI’s revenue grew 12.6% yoy, with ex-Java regions posting the strongest growth at 15.8% yoy, followed by Java ex-Jakarta at 12.6% yoy. Sales per employee increased by 5% yoy, while FY24 SSSG reached 8.8%. With a stable gross margin and lower tax rates, AHI’s FY24 net profit reached Rp892bn, up 15.8% yoy. This figure accounted for 105% of our and consensus FY24 forecasts, broadly in line. ·         As of end-Dec24, AHI reported a lower inventory day of 248 (vs. 252 days in FY23) and a cash cycle of 240 days (vs. 248 days in FY23). This aligns with the company's guidance to reduce inventory days but remains above the pre-pandemic average of 208 days (2017–2019). (Natalia Sutanto & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

BBYB (Buy, TP: Rp600) 4Q24 Results – Above and Feb25 Update FY24 Insight: ·         Net profits remained positive, albeit small: BBYB posted a Rp20bn net profit in FY24, a major turnaround from a Rp573bn net loss in FY23, driven by a significant reduction in CIR and lower provisions. ·         Beating our and consensus: BBYB FY24`s net profits were above consensus` Rp8bn and our net losses estimates. ·         Flattish NIM despite lower LDR: Despite a lower loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of 67.5% (from 77.7%), NIM remained stable, supported by a 17bps decline in CoF and a 167bps increase in EA yield. ·         Positive PPOP from efficiencies: PPOP grew +8% yoy, despite flattish NII (-1%) and lower fee-based income (-23%), as opex dropped 28%, reducing CIR to 29% from 38%. ·         Loan and deposits contracted: Loans declined -18% yoy, while deposits shrank -6% yoy, pushing LDR down to 67.5%, creating ample room for loan expansion. ·         Improving CoC: Provision expenses declined -16%, with CoC easing to 24.6% in FY24 from 26.1% in FY23. ·         Higher coverage ratio: Despite lower provisioning, NPL and LaR coverage rose to 218% and 56%, as NPL and LaR ratios declined to 3.3% and 12.8%, respectively. ·         Steady write-off despite lower loans: Loan write-offs remained steady at around Rp2.2tr in FY24, despite loan contraction, pushing the write-off-to-loan ratio up to 23.6% from 21.2%.   4Q24 Insight: ·         Positive net profits: BBYB recorded a Rp16bn net profit in 4Q24, slightly higher than 3Q24’s Rp10bn, marking a turnaround from 4Q23’s Rp7bn net loss. ·         Lower NIM but improved CoC yoy: Compared to last year, NIM declined 300bps, but CoC improved 450bps, likely due to a shift towards lower-yielding but less risky commercial loans. ·         Improving NPL and LaR qoq: NPL ratio improved to 3.3% from 3.7%, while LaR ratio declined to 12.8% from 14.4%, as BBYB continued to write off bad debt.   Feb25 and 2M25 Insight: ·         Positive net profits: BBYB booked a Rp42bn net profit in Feb25, maintaining strong momentum despite a slight dip from Jan25’s high base due to seasonality. ·         Lower NIM on less risky assets: NIM fell to 17.2% in 2M25 from 21.3% in 2M24, primarily due to a shift to lower-risk earning assets and a lower LDR. ·         Improving CoC: CoC improved significantly to 17.1% in 2M25 from 25.3% in 2M24, supported by a growing commercial loan portfolio.   Summary:

Overall Performance: BBYB’s FY24 results were robust, with positive earnings driven by efficiencies and lower CoC, despite contracted loan growth and lower LDR. The positive momentum continued in 2M25, supported by better CoC and lower write-offs. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BELI (Buy, TP: Rp520) – 4Q/FY24 Loss improvement better than our estimate, company confirms marketing expansion ·         4Q24 – Strong TPV Growth Drives GP Upside; Disciplined Store & Marketing Expansion Keeps Losses Steady BELI posted a net loss of -Rp666bn in 4Q24, slightly improving by +2% qoq, supported by higher TPV and GP, despite a significant increase in OPEX during the quarter. Total TPV rose to Rp21.14tr (+6% qoq, +21% yoy), driven mainly by 3P (led by tiket.com with higher AOV), Institutional, and Physical Store segments. This resulted in higher GBPD of Rp1.6tr (+14% qoq, +53% yoy) and GP of Rp959bn (+21% qoq, +43% yoy), primarily supported by an improved take rate of 7.59% (+55bps qoq). While 1P TPV declined by 3% qoq amid continued optimization efforts throughout 2024, its take rate has increased to 21.7%. EBITDA loss stood at Rp537bn, reflecting a significant rise in OPEX, mainly due to higher salary expenses from 18 new physical store openings and increased S&M spending as Blibli ramped up platform promotion in 3Q–4Q. ·         FY24 losses curtailed by 31%yoy, with TPV optimization, stronger take-rates, GP, and disciplined OPEX For FY24, BELI reported a net loss of -Rp2.53tr, better than our and consensus estimates, improving by +31% yoy as GBPD and GP grew significantly, while OPEX rose at a slower pace. Total TPV reached Rp77.41tr (+7% yoy), in line with our estimate, with 1P Retail under optimization and growth driven by 3P, Institutional, and Physical Store segments. GBPD came in at Rp5.0tr (+45% yoy) and GP at Rp3.30tr (+37% yoy), both ahead of our expectations, mainly due to an improved take rate of 6.93% (+182bps yoy). EBITDA loss was -Rp2.11tr (+37% yoy), with OPEX rising only +5% yoy despite the Q4 uptick, also better than our forecast. (Niko Margaronis & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

CTRA (Buy, TP: Rp1,700) – FY24 Results: Above Our Estimates, In-Line with Consensus

• CTRA booked a net profit of Rp849bn in 4Q24 (+243% qoq, +28% yoy), bringing its cumulative FY24 achievement to Rp2.1tr (+15% yoy), surpassing the company's target of +9% yoy and forming 108%/103% of our/consensus estimates.
• Stronger earnings growth in 4Q24 was primarily driven by property development revenue, which surged 72% yoy to Rp3.5tr, with landed residentials contributing 77%. This was mainly due to the handover of most of the company's Rp3tr FY24 VAT pre-sales happened in 4Q24, alongside better opex management.
• Our review of 3Q23 marketing sales (~12-18 months ago, should be handed over in 4Q24) also recorded at Rp2.7tr—well above the quarterly average range of Rp1.9-2.1tr. This was primarily driven by the launch of CitraGarden Serpong La Vallee Shophouses and Diandre Residentials, which generated Rp1.0tr in marketing sales.
• Meanwhile, recurring revenue for FY24 stood at Rp2.27tr (+7% yoy), with healthcare being one of the strongest segment, recording 14% yoy growth.
• Overall, ROE in FY24 improved to 10.1% from 9.6% in FY23, demonstrating CTRA's ability to leverage its JO business model with well-diversified landed-residentials product portfolios.
• We maintain our Buy rating on CTRA with a 52% discount to RNAV-based TP of Rp1,700. Currently, CTRA trades attractively at a -79% discount to RNAV, approaching -2SD of its 5-year historical mean. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

GGRM (Hold, TP: Rp17,500) FY24 Results: 34% of Consensus FY24 Estimates

• GGRM reported FY24 revenue of Rp98.6tr, down 17% yoy. Revenue from SKM declined 10% yoy, while SKT increased 1% yoy.
• In FY24, GGRM’s gross margin fell to 9.5%, down from 12.3% in the previous year. Based on our channel checks, the latest price increase occurred in May 2024, ranging from 6–8% yoy.
• Combined with higher opex, GGRM reported FY24 net profit of Rp981bn, down 82% yoy. The FY24 net profit accounted for only 34% of consensus estimates, i.e., below expectations. (Natalia Sutanto & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

MBMA (Buy, TP: Rp530) – FY24: Slightly Above

• 4Q NP turned positive to US$4.3mn, resulting in a FY24 NP of US$$22.8mn, +230% yoy, which was above ours/cons estimate at 112%/108%.
• Meanwhile, 4Q revenue was relatively flat at US$465mn, +1.5% qoq, whilst FY24 revenue stood at US$1.8bn, +39% yoy, reaching 100%/100% of ours/cons estimate.
• MBMA saw a stronger profitability in 4Q due to an improvement of NPI margin by +46% qoq to US$1,850/ton, as well as margin improvements from ore sales, where saprolite/limonite margin grew by +16%/+65% to US$5.8/wmt and US$8.9/wmt respectively.
• Additionally, there was a significantly higher opex of US$13.4mn, +86% qoq, that is attributable to a professional fee of US$5mn. (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)

MDKA (Buy, TP: Rp2,400) – FY24: Below Expectation

• 4Q NP turned positive to US$11.3mn, though FY24 NP still at a negative of -US$55.8mn. Meanwhile, 4Q revenue slightly declined to US$572mn, -0.4% qoq, while FY24 revenue managed to grow by +31% yoy to US$2.2bn, reaching 101%/100% of ours/cons estimate.
• MDKA recorded a positive 4Q NP that was supported by widening cash margin for both copper and gold by +240%/+17% qoq, which was supported by Gold's growing ASP. Meanwhile, its copper margin grew as cash cost declined by -54% qoq. (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)

MTEL (Buy, TP: Rp1,000) – Inline Earnings, Consecutive 4Q EBITDA Margin Improvement

• 4Q24 Earnings: +5.1%qoq Revenue with solid EBITDA Margin Expansion
• Mitratel delivered net profit of Rp609bn (+18.8%qoq, +3.0%yoy), supported by solid growth and improved EBITDA margin.
• Revenue came in at Rp2.49tr (+5.1%qoq, +3.3%yoy), driven by Telkom-related projects and strong contribution from fiber—both organic rollout and inorganic growth through the UMT acquisition (8,100 km) completed on Dec 2. Tower revenue remained flat. Fiber revenue contribution reached 8.2%.
• EBITDA stood at Rp2.11tr (+7.1%qoq, +9.4%yoy), with margins improving by +160bps qoq / +470bps yoy, supported by lower cash COGS.
• FY24 Earnings – Organic Revenue Growth of +7.2%yoy with Rising Fiber Contribution and Margin Gains
• Mitratel booked net profit of Rp2.10tr (+4.1%yoy), in line with our and consensus estimates (98.2% / 98.9% achievement).
• Revenue reached Rp9.31tr (+7.2%yoy) in line with expectations, supported by organic tower growth (+1,390 new towers & slightly higher tenancy ratio) and incremental revenue from fiber. Fiber also saw meaningful contribution from third-party clients such as IOH and XL.
• EBITDA came in at Rp7.70tr, with commendable EBITDA margin improvement to 82.7% (+230bps yoy).
• The effective tax expense rate was higher overall in FY24. (Niko Margaronis & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

SILO FY24 Results: In-Line with our estimates, Below consensus

• Net profit in 4Q24 booked at Rp267bn (-17%qoq; -24%yoy), bringing its FY24 cummulative to Rp902bn, forming 101% of our estimates at Rp890bn (In-Line), yet missing consensus estimates of Rp1.07tr (84%). Weaker achievement in 4Q24 was primarily due to flattish revenue (-1%qoq), as well as increasing opex, primarily from salary costs.
• The company recently announced the signing of a syndicated loan agreement worth Rp14.5tr, which we believe is related to its plan to acquire hospitals currently leased to First REIT. The impact on FY25F/26F net profit, as well as our DCF’s WACC, will depend on the timing of the facility drawdown and the interest rate charged. However, our initial estimates suggest this could increase the Debt-to-Equity Ratio from the current 0.1x to approximately 1.7x. Link to disclosure: https://bit.ly/4iSbGRF
• More details on company development will be on earnings call 27@9AM JKT Time. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

SMGR (Hold, TP: Rp3,900) – FY24 Result: Huge Miss

• SMGR reported earnings of Rp0 in 4Q24, led to FY24 NP of Rp720bn (-67% yoy, 62%/59% of ours/cons or miss)
• Revenue was flattish at Rp9.9tr in 4Q24, led to FY24 revenue of Rp36.2tr (-6% yoy, 100%/98% of ours/cons estimate or inline).
• However, earnings was under pressure due to weak margin: 4Q24 GPM at 19.4% (-250 bps qoq/-560 bps yoy), which led FY24 GPM at 21.9% (-440 bps yoy). Better 4Q24 ASP (Rp 859k/t, or +1% qoq) could not save GPM, with FY24 ASP at Rp840k/t (-2.5% yoy).
• Similar trend was observed with EBITDA, as EBITDA margin recorded at 7.8% in 4Q24 (-550 bps qoq/-930 bps yoy), led to FY24 EBITDA margin of 13.8% (-590 bps yoy). Opex to revenue reached 14.8% in 4Q24, or -60 bps qoq (FY24: 15.5%, +30 bps yoy). (Richard Jerry, CFA & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

TBIG (Buy, TP: Rp2,500) – 4Q24 Earnings Missed Expectations

• 4Q24 Earnings: TBIG posted net profit of Rp194bn (-55.5% qoq, -56.0% yoy), missing estimates despite resilient topline and operating performance.
• Revenue rose to Rp1.74tr (+1.6% qoq, +3.1% yoy) on higher anchor tenant adds, driving tenancy ratio to 1.79x (from 1.81x a quarter ago).
• EBITDA was flat with margin down to 84.2% (-140bps qoq).
• Pre-tax profit was hit by rising non-interest financial costs as TBIG shifted from USD to IDR debt.
• Effective tax rate spiked to 54%, further pressuring earnings.
• FY24 Earnings: Net profit came in at Rp1.36tr (-12.7% yoy), missing forecasts due to higher financing costs.
• Revenue grew modestly on new BTS sites and rising FTTT contribution.
• EBITDA margin held at 85.5% (-80bps yoy), with EBIT up 2.0% yoy as depreciation stayed in check (Niko Margaronis & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Bank Indonesia Intervened In The Offshore NDF Market To Stabilize The Rupiah

Bank Indonesia intervened in the offshore NDF market to stabilize the Rupiah amid global volatility triggered by the US reciprocal tariffs (April 2) and China’s retaliation (April 4). With domestic markets closed for Eid, pressure mounted in offshore trading. BI will extend intervention to the domestic market from April 8 via spot, DNDF, and SBN purchases, while also ensuring adequate Rupiah liquidity to support market stability and investor confidence. (Bank Indonesia)

 

Indonesia Seeks US Negotiations, Pledges to Ease Trade Barriers

Indonesia pledged to reduce tarrif barriers for US products, increase import from US, and look for investment deregulation to negotiate for tariff exemption. (Bloomberg, MoF)

 

US Implements Global Tariff Policy

Trump’s sweeping new trade policy is now partially in effect, with a minimum 10% global tariff on all U.S. imports having started on April 5. Steeper, country-specific tariffs are set to follow on April 9, targeting around 60 nations based on their trade practices, existing barriers, and alleged currency manipulation. China faces the highest total tariff at 54%, followed by Vietnam (46%), Taiwan and Indonesia (32%), Japan (24%), and the EU (20%). China chose retaliation with 34% tariffs on US goods. (Bloomberg)

 

US Non-farm payrolls rising by 228K in Mar25,

US Non-farm payrolls rising by 228K in Mar25, well above the 140K consensus estimate and up from a revised 117K in February. However, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% with annual wage growth softened to 3.8% from the previous 4.0%, missing expectations. Overall, the report points to a resilient labor market heading into a potential slowdown amid higher tariffs. (Bloomberg)

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Apr 7, 2025

 

Retail: APRINDO Reported Sales Dip During Ramadan and Eid 2025

The Indonesian Retail Entrepreneurs Association (APRINDO) reported a 5–8% drop in retail sales during Ramadan and Eid 2025 compared to last year. FMCG sales fell short of expectations, likely due to weak economic conditions making consumers more cautious. Despite the decline, sales still rose slightly from regular months, driven by festive items like biscuits, syrup, and sugar. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

BYD Records 3,450 Units Sales in 2M25

BYD Motor Indonesia sold 3,450 electric vehicles in the first two months of 2025, comprising 2,500 BYD units and 937 from its premium brand Denza. The Denza D9, a BEV priced around IDR 950 million, is gaining traction as a rival to the Toyota Alphard. BYD currently focuses on retail sales with a 2–3 month waiting period for some models. To support growth, four new showrooms have opened in BSD, Pluit, Kelapa Gading, and Denpasar. (Kontan)

 

ISAT CEO, Vikram Sinha Buys 3.67Mn

Through a disclosure on March 24, 2025, Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison (ISAT) CEO Vikram Sinha purchased 3.67mn ISAT shares at a price range of Rp1,315 - Rp1,415 per share. The acquisition increased his voting rights from 0.0129% to 0.0243%. The transaction is estimated to have cost between Rp4.82 bn and Rp5.19bn. (IDX)

 

PGEO Plans Rp800Bn Share Buyback

PGEO is set to allocate around Rp800bn for a share buyback of up to 2.5% of its free float. This move complies with IDX regulations requiring a minimum free float of 7.5%. The mgmt. stated that the buyback will not disrupt operations, as the company holds US$ 657 million in cash, US$ 250 million in remaining IPO funds, and strong operational earnings, providing ample room for future growth. (Emiten News)

 

SCMA Allocates Rp250Bn in Capital Expenditure for 2025

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA) has allocated Rp250bn in capital expenditure (capex) for the year 2025. The capex budget will be used to strengthen the company's digital transmission infrastructure and to develop a new integrated studio complex located in Cijayanti, Sentul, West Java. (Kontan)

 

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