FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

 

     

Macro Strategy: Currency Conundrum

Bank Indonesia's stance has remained consistent with a continued emphasis on stabilizing the currency. BI views that the increasing inflation risks will be temporary and manageable. In addition, BI also foresees capital inflows post an expected peak in the Fed Funds Rate in the November meeting. With an ongoing commitment to safeguard currency volatility, we don’t foresee any change in policy rates until year-end. Progress on the SRBI and TD DHE has been promising in providing a buffer on forex reserves.

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Poultry: Poised for 4Q23 recovery despite ST headwinds (OVERWEIGHT)

While recent weak broiler prices and higher local corn prices may drive lower 3Q23 earnings (qoq), we maintain our Overweight view on the back of cheap valuation (at 9.2x EV/EBITDA, -1SD to 5-year average) in view of the potential earnings recovery in 4Q23 and FY24F (22% EPS growth).

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MARKET NEWS

 

       

MACROECONOMY

Bank Indonesia Kept BI7DRR at 5.75%

Bank Indonesia kept BI7DRR at 5.75% for eight consecutive months. BI's stance has remained consistent with continued emphasis on stabilizing the currency. They anticipate that the increasing inflation risks will be temporary and manageable. BI also foresees capital inflows post Fed Fund Rate reaches its peak in the November meeting. With ongoing commitment to safeguard currency volatility, we don’t foresee any change in policy rate until year end. Progress on SRBI and TD DHE has been promising to provide buffer on the forex reserve. (Bank Indonesia)

 

The 2024 Election Budget has been realized by 46.7% until August 2023

The realization of the 2024 election budget has reached IDR14 tn until 31 August 2023. This figure has reached 46.7% of the total allocation that has been prepared this year of IDR30 tn. According to the Ministry of Finance, the government budget since 2022 with realization of IDR3.1 tn. In 2023, the allocation will reach IDR30 tn, and in 2024 it will amount to IDR37.4 tn. So, the total election budget from 2022 to 2024 reaches IDR 70.6 tn. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

EXCL Targets Mining Companies

EXCL is expanding the enterprise segment by targeting mining companies with green mining principles through XL Axiata Business Solutions (XLABS). According to EXCL, implementing this private network would increase the efficiency of using electrical and gas energy to potentially reduce carbon emissions by up to 20%. Furthermore, according to EXCL, private networks may support green mining operations, increase productivity through automation, and lower costs through IoT technology. (Kontan)

 

GOTO Strengthens GoCorp Services

GOTO strengthens GoCorp Services, a technology solution from Gojek for business actors in managing various company expenses for employee operational activities, such as transportation allowances, food, and delivery of goods. According to GOTO, companies that adopt end-to-end technology systems can reduce management concerns related to efficiency issues, time-consuming process simplification, and a lack of company visibility. (Kontan)

 

MDKA Held an Affiliate Transaction Worth IDR4.99 bn.

MDKA’s controlled company, PT Merdeka Mining Indonesia (MMI), conducted an affiliate transaction amounting to IDR4.99 bn. The affiliation transaction is a conditional share acquisition and purchase agreement between MMI, PT Pani Bersama Jaya (PBJ), and MDKA. PBJ will become the controller of MMI after the transaction becomes effective. From this transaction, MDKA management hopes that there will be an increase in the efficiency and development of MMI's heavy equipment rental activities. (Kontan)

 

PGAS to Build LNG Hub in Nusa Dua Bali

PGAS plans to build a small LNG hub in Nusa Dua, Bali, which will supply Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) supplies to hotels and restaurants. Each hotel will be connected to one LNG pipeline as a Pipeline network that supplies LNG to various hotels and restaurants will be built in Nusa Dua, Bali. The availability of this LNG hub is expected to attract more hotels and restaurants in Nusa Dua and surrounding areas to switch to using LNG, as there are currently less than 10 hotels that use LNG. (Bisnis)