FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

GOTO Gojek Tokopedia: Scaling up GTF to Maximize Value in Both Merger and Standalone Scenarios (GOTO.IJ Rp 83; BUY TP Rp 110)

• In our view, the likelihood of a GOTO-GRAB merger is high, pending developments in GOTO structure to maximize shareholders’ value.
• Spinning-off Gojek potentially offers GOTO liquidity for dividends to shareholders, unlocks GTF’s potential, and offers exit opportunities.
• We remain confident in GOTO’s current format with GTF turning EBITDA positive in 4Q24 and lift our TP to Rp110, implying a P/S of 7.1x.

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Merdeka Battery Materials:  Growth is imminent, subject to AIM’s delivery (MBMA.IJ Rp 376; BUY TP Rp 530)

• Management targets flattish NPI/HGNM output in FY25, but it could potentially suspend HGNM production if it is not economically feasible.
• SCM’s limonite ore production is poised to grow by +24%-49% in FY25, which will be sold to ESG HPAL and Meiming after FPP is ready in 2H25.
• We lowered our FY24-26F earnings forecasts by -14%/-35%/-26% and TP to Rp530; reiterate Buy rating on upsides from growth projects.

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Merdeka Copper Gold: 4Q24 operational improved, though FY25 might be another challenging year (MDKA.IJ Rp 1,420; BUY TP Rp 2,400)

• Despite positive yoy growth in FY24, we expect gold and copper production to diminish in FY25 as the life of mine comes to an end.
• The Pani gold project is key towards the continuation of revenue for MDKA.
• We adjusted our FY24-26F earnings forecasts by +89%/-41%/-20% and TP to Rp2,400; reiterate Buy rating on upsides from growth projects.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Automotive (Overweight): Weak 4W Sales yet 2W Remain Strong in Jan25

• 4W wholesales: 61.8k (-22% mom/-11% yoy), represents 6.5%/7% of our/Gaikindo target (slightly below seasonality)
• 4W retail sales: 63.8k (-22% mom/-19% yoy)
• 2W sales: 557k (+38% mom/-6% yoy)

 

Comment: 4W figures were weak for both wholesales and retail sales, despite recovery that happened in 2H24, with only Toyota and Hyundai recorded decent volume trend in Jan-25. Meanwhile, 2W sales remain strong as we observe slight recovery in middle low segment. IIMS 2025 event (Feb 13th - Feb 23rd) should give some boost to monthly number, with Toyota, Wuling and BYD are planning to launch new products. We still reiterate our OVERWEIGHT sector rating with Buy rating for ASII, while also observing the continuity of monthly sales trend especially on 4W. (Richard Jerry, CFA & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia FX Reserve Rose to US$156.1bn in Jan25

Indonesia FX Reserve rose to record high at US$156.1bn in Jan25 (vs. Dec24: US$155.7bn) on the back on the back of another global bond issuance and revenue from tax service. (Bank Indonesia)

 

President Donald Trump to Announce 25% Tariffs on Steel and Aluminium Imports

President Donald Trump said he will announce 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminium on Monday. Furthermore, he would announce reciprocal tariffs later in the week on countries that tax US imports. Those tariffs will not go into effect the same day as the announcement, which could be Tuesday or Wednesday but soon after, Trump said. (Bloomberg)

 

US Add 143k Jobs in Jan25

US add 143K jobs in Jan25 (vs. Cons: 170K). The US Unemployment decreased to 4% (vs. cons: 4.1%). The low NFP might come from the uncertainty in Trump’s migrant policy with Fed’s Beige Book and Fed Atlanta GDPNow still indicate robust economy growth. (Bloomberg)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Feb 7, 2025

Automotive: New Car Prices Rise in Feb25 Amid VAT Increase

With the luxury goods VAT rising from to 12% in Jan25, major brands like Toyota, Daihatsu, Suzuki, and Honda have adjusted prices, making city cars more expensive in February. The Daihatsu Sirion now costs Rp233.85–243.05 million, Honda Brio RS Rp248.2–258.2mn, Toyota Agya GR Sport Rp246.2–265.3mn, and Suzuki S-Presso Rp171.4–181.4mn, though the S-Presso remains the most affordable option. (Kontan)

 

Indonesian Government Optimistic About Abundant Corn Supply

The government, through the National Food Agency (NFA), is optimistic about an abundant corn supply following the early February harvest. Projections from the Central Statistics Agency estimate a 41.38% yoy increase in 1Q25 production, totaling 4.8mn tons (Jan25: 1.33mn tons; Feb25: 1.39mn tons; Mar25: 2.08mn tons). The NFA also expects an additional 1.4mn tons of dry shelled corn with 14% moisture. Bulog is targeted to absorb 1mn tons of dry shelled corn in 2025, which represents 5.8% of the total national production projection of 17.7mn tons. (Investor Daily)

 

CORPORATE

HRTA Aims for Strong Growth and Expansion in 2025

HRTA targets revenue growth of 50%-60% and net profit growth of around 40%-50% this year, with total gold bar sales expected to reach 13-15 tons. The company also plans to expand by opening 15 new self-owned stores. (Kontan)

 

MYOR Liquidates Dutch Subsidiary

MYOR has dissolved its inactive subsidiary, Mayora Nederland B.V., after Dutch regulatory approval. The entity, fully owned by MYOR, had Rp35bn in liabilities, already consolidated. The liquidation has no financial impact and is expected to reduce costs. (Emiten News)

 

TINS Targets Net Profit Between Rp1-1.5tr in 2025

TINS aims to achieve a net profit ranging from Rp1- 1.5tr in 2025. This projected bottom line is supported by a revenue target of Rp12-13tr for the year. According to TINS, the target is driven by the increase in tin reserves and resources, as well as the opening of new mines. TINS also noted an expected increase in tin ore production capacity and tin metal sales by approximately 10%-20% this year, compared to the actual performance in 2024. (Bisnis)

 

TLKM Involved in MBG Program, Prepares Monitoring Application

TLKM is developing an application to monitor the effectiveness of the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program. The application will be managed under Telkomsel, a subsidiary of Telkom. However, details regarding Telkom's role and the application's functionality in the MBG program have yet to be disclosed, as it is still in the preparation stage. (Bisnis)